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Over the last year Ukraine’s political and military position has been worsening. Moscow insists on its maximalist objectives and is determined to continue to pursue them through military means. Amid the shifts in the US policy, Europe has to find ways to enhance Ukraine’s support while offsetting the risks of the US further distancing from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Although Ukraine’s defence industry is expanding, its capacity to sustain the defence effort – both in terms of materiel and morale – continues to rely heavily on international military support. European support, including innovative assistance instruments, does not meet the challenge that Ukraine is facing. At the same time, the current level of US commitment to Ukraine falls short of the Biden-era policy, which already was criticised in Ukraine as insufficient. Europe also faces a range of its own challenges from military unpreparedness to a lack of political will, as well as divisions within European institutions and society regarding the war and support to Ukraine.

European support, including innovative assistance instruments, does not meet the challenge that Ukraine is facing.

The current focus of the US and consequently European efforts – the ceasefire and the peace deal – has diverted attention from Ukraine’s priority needs. The Alaska summit once again indicated that Russia refuses to compromise on any of its core demands. The impasse, in which Moscow does not have enough incentive to stop the war and Kyiv cannot accept to give up its territories without credible Western guarantees, is currently unbreakable. At the same time, a discussion of Russia’s terms only serves Moscow’s realisation of its goals in Ukraine through political means.

All this puts Europe in a difficult position. It cannot afford to lose US support and thus it is right to make every effort to keep Trump happy and supportive of Ukraine, even if
only in a limited form. Yet, the war and shifts in the US policy require greater European leadership. Although the task of supporting Ukraine’s fight for its existence does not fall exclusively on European shoulders, Ukraine’s survival is increasingly a European responsibility. Failing to adequately acknowledge that may be fatal for Ukraine and will damage Europe’s security in the longer term.

The good news is that Europe is aware of the task at hand and has capacity to strengthen its role. There are three ways for Europe to gather its act. First, European states in general, and the coalition of the willing in particular, could double their efforts to build up Ukraine’s military capabilities. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is right to stress that a strong Ukrainian army is the only reliable security guarantee to the country. Enhancing support for Ukraine’s armed forces is the easiest and most effective policy tool at Europe’s disposal. If Europe wants Ukraine to survive this war and safeguard its own security, it must provide more financial and military support.

Europe should brace itself for a prolonged conflict with Russia over Ukraine’s future and European security.

Second, in the long term, Ukraine needs a more comprehensive security and military assistance through an institutionalised framework rather than ad hoc arrangements. At least, Europe can offer a long-term financial commitment to meet Ukraine’s needs, ensuring that funds are not scrambled for each year to fill gaps in the Ukrainian budget. This sends a wrong signal to Moscow and Kyiv alike. The EU shall make a stronger effort to integrate Ukraine into its institutions in spite of a Hungarian veto. The EU accession process is a key instrument at Europe’s disposal. The prospect of membership has been pivotal for Ukraine and boosted morale and resilience. Yet the reform process is sluggish, and Brussels is not doing Ukraine any favours by turning a blind eye to the genuine, long-standing challenges. Stronger governance is an untapped domestic resource that could improve Ukraine’s resistance to the Russian aggression, and it is Europe that can provide the necessary resources and conviction to make sure that reforms continue in Kyiv despite the war.

Lastly, although there are hopes and talks for peace, Europe should brace itself for a prolonged conflict with Russia over Ukraine’s future and European security. Despite the diplomatic process, there are no signs of Russia stopping its aggression and lowering its demands from Ukraine and Europe. The good news is that while Ukraine faces shortages in manpower and supplies, it is able and willing to continue to defend itself. Europe should match Ukraine’s commitment and show readiness to share the burden with Ukraine until Russia’s military machinery runs out of steam. A strong, well-armed Ukrainian army is the best security guarantee that Europe can both offer and have.

Action plan: 

• Europe should provide more financial and military resources for Ukraine in an institutionalised form to prepare for a prolonged war.
• It should also accelerate Ukraine’s integration into European institutions, in particular the EU membership.
• Focus on improving governance in Ukraine: the more efficient the Ukrainian state becomes, the more resources it can invest in its own defence. At the moment, Europe is the only force that can impact the incumbent government’s reform trajectory in absence of elections.

Tyyne Karjalainen is a Research Fellow in the European Union research programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) since 2020, and a doctoral researcher in political science at the University of Turku since 2021. Her research focuses on European security, Ukraine, the EU’s foreign and security policies, and EU enlargement.

Ryhor Nizhnikau is a Senior Research Fellow in Russia, the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood and Eurasia programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He works on Russia’s and the EU’s policies towards Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus, and studies the institutional transformations and political developments in these countries.

This text was published as part of the HSF 2025 Report on September 2025. You can read all articles from the report here.

Photo: The White House